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KABUL – The Taliban have vowed to complete the disputed Qosh Tepa irrigation canal in Afghanistan at “any cost,” raising concerns among neighboring countries over the potential impact on a river crucial to their agricultural economies. The fundamentalist Afghan regime, in control of the project since retaking the country two years ago, sees the canal as a key infrastructure initiative, aiming to transform 550,000 hectares of desert into arable land.
Originally conceived in the 1970s, work on the canal began shortly before the Taliban regained control in 2021. The first phase of the 285-kilometer waterway was completed in October, with thousands of workers striving to meet a tentative two-year completion deadline. The canal holds significant promise for areas like Sheberghan, where fields suffer from water scarcity, highlighting the nation’s vulnerability to climate change.
The Taliban frames the canal as essential for a country grappling with decades of conflict and high unemployment rates. Zabihullah Mujahid, the Taliban’s chief spokesman, stated, “In such times, this project represents a great source of hope for all our countrymen.” However, concerns arise in neighboring Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, where alarm is growing over Afghanistan’s plan to divert 20% of the water from the Amu Darya River for the canal.
Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev voiced apprehension at an international conference, emphasizing that the canal’s construction could significantly alter the water regime in Central Asia. Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, both dependent on the Amu Darya for irrigation, fear potential disruptions to their lucrative cotton and agricultural sectors.
Despite these concerns, the Taliban warns against interference in the $684 million canal project. Taliban Defense Minister Mullah Yaqoob Mujahid assures neighbors that the project will not pose a threat, emphasizing their commitment to defend Afghanistan’s water rights.
The dispute adds to Afghanistan’s history of waterway conflicts, such as the ongoing dispute with Iran over the Helmand River. However, analysts suggest that given the regional interdependencies, it’s unlikely the canal issue will escalate into violence. The involvement of neighboring countries in major projects, including an energy pipeline and a railway, may influence cautious responses to the canal dispute.
While concerns persist, the Taliban’s reputation for violence may deter neighboring countries from escalating the situation. Despite reservations, these nations may tread carefully, considering their economic ties and the Taliban’s formidable reputation. The canal project, seen as vital for Afghanistan’s economic recovery, underscores the delicate balance between national development and regional concerns.
