Afghanistan Times
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KABUL – UN experts have warned of an intensifying terrorist menace emanating from al-Qaida, the Islamic State terror group, and their affiliates across conflict zones in Afghanistan and Africa while ominously escalating in European regions.
The comprehensive 23-page report illuminates the uncomfortably close ties between Afghanistan’s Taliban rulers and al-Qaida, sounding the alarm about the destabilizing impact of a high concentration of terrorist groups in the country, posing a grave threat to regional security. The looming danger within Afghanistan is spearheaded by the Islamic State, wielding the ability to extend its influence far beyond the region.
While the report acknowledges that none of the al-Qaida affiliates have fully regained the capacity for long-range operations, it underscores their unwavering global ambitions and highlights covert efforts to rebuild their capabilities. Despite setbacks in Iraq and Syria, the Islamic State group commands a formidable force of 3,000 to 5,000 fighters, engaging in a relentless low-intensity insurgency in Iraq and escalating attacks in Syria.
The report underscores the perturbing delay in naming the current IS leader, hinting at internal strife and security challenges within the group. Speculation abounds among UN member nations that the Islamic State could pivot its leadership and “center of gravity” to Africa or Afghanistan, with Africa emerging as the more likely destination.
In West Africa and the Sahel, the report paints a grim picture of escalating violence and threats in conflict zones, exposing a critical deficit in counterterrorism capabilities that these nefarious groups exploit. The situation is further complicated by the merging of ethnic and regional disputes with the sinister agenda and operations of these terrorist factions.
Despite the Somali government’s military offensive against al-Shabab in East Africa, the report reveals the group’s resilience, boasting an estimated 7,000 to 12,000 fighters and a substantial annual income from illegal taxation. Al-Qaida, enhancing its media productions, seeks to restore its credibility and allure to potential recruits.
A dramatic shift in al-Qaida’s messaging follows Hamas’ brutal attacks in southern Israel, emphasizing the sanctity of the Al-Aqsa mosque. Member states express deep concerns that al-Qaida might exploit the situation to regain relevance, capitalizing on global dissent regarding civilian casualties and inciting self-initiated attacks worldwide.
Europe, too, stands at the precipice, with formal terrorist threat levels soaring after fatal attacks in late 2023 in France and Belgium, coupled with numerous unsettling incidents and arrests across the continent. The report issues a resounding call for heightened vigilance and urgent international cooperation to navigate the treacherous and evolving terrorist landscape that threatens global stability.
