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By Hafeez Hassanabadi
There is no doubt that the history of Russian diplomacy has witnessed lots of ups and downs, despite the fact that they take their decisions after considerable deliberations. Before taking any step they always bear in their minds the Russian proverb that “the more the higher you fill down, the more the pain is”. The possible safe why out is always is in their mind whenever they want to inter into a relationship in a vertical flying position.
However, a few years back, regarding their relationship with Pakistan, the Russian were seen as a bit hasty, some people were suggesting that as America is quitting the area, therefore Russia should take its place.
If things are seen in a wider perspective, that perception seems to be a childish conjecture or still it is, but in the presence of that concept, the Russian warm up with Pakistan was a self-deception. Russian company Gazprom’s taking keen interest in a dead project like IPI, shows how Pakistani officials have taken in their Russian counterparts by making them to believe that passing the pipelines of IPI through Balochistan isn’t a difficult task, besides this unfounded propaganda that the Baloch are religious extremists, and that they’re their common enemy: thus the Russia does not protest the Baloch genocide and remains a silent spectator in international forums.
Nevertheless, the reality is different from that of Pakistani expectations because, Balochistan has long ago wrested itself out of Pakistani state control. They talk about existence of an autonomous provincial government in Balochistan, but it is not true, in facts it is a spineless, stooge government, the governor and chief minister even cannot visit their own province certain areas. How come they can protect foreign investors and their projects? The most important reality is that Baloch are the only secular nation in the entire region. And they’re far away from religious extremism – the jewel in the crown.
To exploit the natural resources of Baloch land, Pakistan is hell bent on to create the impression that Baloch people are religious thereby it would be easy for it to obtain the clean chit for quelling the Baloch resistance with impunity.
Today I feel relaxed that almost three years ago or so I used to sincerely convince my Russian friends in an informal way that Russia should not be taken in by Pakistan and avoid taking part in unnecessary war where it has to dissipate its energy in vain, The IPI project, in which Russia was taking interest for investment, passes through Balochistan and Balochistan is simmering with resistance.
And the second thing is that Baloch hold no grudge against any non-Muslim nation, including the Russia. Despite the fact that Pakistan has established thousands of madrassas in Balochistan spending billions of rupees to dilute the secular nature of Baloch nation and sowing the seeds of resentment in them against Christens, Jews and Hindus, but they failed in their sinister schemes. To avenge its humiliation in Balochistan, Pakistani state is ruthlessly perpetrating Baloch genocide. Therefore, the Russia should not become a partner of Pakistani state conspiracy against Baloch.
The worrisome fact is that if Pakistan’s criminal hand was not stopped at this juncture of affairs, like Iran, it would turn occupied Balochistan into such a place where it would weigh very heavy for world peace.
At that time ecstasy of our Russian friends about relationship with Pakistan was spectacular, but after the elapse of a very short span of time Russian president cancelled his scheduled visit to Pakistan, and most recently the cancellation of Russian Anti Narcotic’s chief, Mr.Viktor Ivanov’s( http://tribune.com.pk/story/463597/last-minute-snub-russias-anti-narcotics-chief-cancels-visit-to-pakistan/ ) visit to Pakistan at eleventh hour, and above all, in the presence of Chinese glaring eyes, Russia backed down from investing in the IP project, it shows that Russia has now realized the reality and taking just decision in the light of objective condition.
It is all the more important for Russia to take step more cautiously because It is the only country in the region which is a strong stockholder and it has not only the capacity of putting a check on Pakistani and Iranian hooliganism, but it also can effectively rectify and control the countless American errors that It erred in the region. Otherwise the Islamic extremist forces would create countless troubles for Russia soon after American with drawal from Afghanistan.
Unfortunately America is still far away from resolving the Afghanistan crisis. If I may further say, of all, Pakistan is the biggest successful party in Afghan conflict as a negative power despite the fact that it is internally broken into pieces.
Pakistan’s new alliance with Russia and good relationship were glorified to an extent that they could achieve two objectives, first, by initiating good relationship with Russia as a pressure tag so that America soften its stance about Pakistan, secondly, in the cover of good relationship they could easily pave the way for its people to penetrate Russia by sending its men in various parts of Russia, particularly the insurgency hit areas where they could prepare a specific number of people of extremists so that they engage Russia until America withdraw from Afghanistan. And then through its proxy war machine, the Taliban, it begins its policy of “Destroy Everything”.
Russia and its allies, India and China have invested a lot in Afghanistan. Pakistan, through its proxy war machine, the Taliban, would do everything it could to wreak havoc in Afghanistan in destroying the every sign of Indian investment and its presence in that unfortunate country, it is not the only reason that destruction is an easy task than building, as Pakistan has got nothing to contribute in the development of Afghanistan; nor does it has the capacity to compete with other powers in the region.
Economically, since General Zia ul Haq era, this country is constantly relying on funds provided by foreign countries to fight the terrorism. Now after the American withdrawal, neither Pakistan would have the previous luxury of economic aid, nor does it enjoys the same friendship of America, all this went down the drain because of Pakistan’s irresponsible ambitions. The mistrust has now taken over between the countries.
Russia, against which once Pakistan waged a Jihadi war to expel it from Afghanistan by destroying Islam’s true identity, would triumphantly inter in Afghanistan and increase its sphere of influence by joining hands with its nearest ally India but this time with a different approach- without a war.
It is in the interest of America and its allies to make sure those extremist religious forces are not going to cash the resentments that have been accumulated over the past 24 years in Pakistan by state sponsored Jihadi Parties against it. In the event of comprehensive Russian role in Afghanistan, after American withdrawal, people will start looking towards Russia, China and India instead of terrorist power of Taliban. Which is obviously disliked by Americans, but this scenario is far better than that possible scenario where people would become disappointed from America and Afghan government and start looking towards Taliban. Pakistan finds its interests in the condition of confrontation among forces in the region, particularly between America and Taliban so that it blackmails America and world community as possible as it can, the options for America are limited, yet it is not bothering to pay any attention to that. Or at least we cannot see such a sign that shows that at academic level such a perspective or option is being contemplated over supposedly expected to produce a positive result.
The efforts that America is exerting through Afghanistan government for talk with Taliban and getting their fugitives released from Pakistani jails seemed to result into a zero sum game as it is the game that Pakistan exactly wants to be played for dissipating American and Afghan energy and time.
The helplessness of America and Afghan leadership is obvious in this regard; they’re trying their level best in making sure that all stockholders are on board so that a new Afghanistan is envisaged, but Pakistan and its Taliban ally are totally opposite of that, they think that America and its ally are defeated. The “Afghanistan withdrawal” is the euphemism of safe escape, they use to describe the situation but again they believe that America is not going to withdraw from Afghanistan completely. Rather, Pakistan believes that America would push the Afghan forces in front line and save her troops from harmful attacks. Pakistanis also believe that American forces would relax in a Garrison Camp from where they would control the threads; they also say that if America with full power could not defeat the Talban, then until when these under trained Afghan troops weather the Taliban storm, and particularly in a situation where one brother is a Taliban fighter, the other works in Afghan military? Therefore, the way that Pakistan is behaving, should be assumed as it has at least created the conditions in which America and its allies cannot manage Afghanistan! The fact is that America and Afghan government genuinely want Pakistan to conduct military operation against the safe havens of Taliban in South Waziristan, and establish its state writ so that the schemes of extremist forces of destroying world peace are not materialized. But Pakistan cannot do that because of her compulsions as its rulers know well better than anyone that the crisis in those tribal areas are not of Sharia but it wants to create a safe haven for “good Taliban and extremists” so that the drug trade of billions of dollars flourish for smuggling. But in the event of complete peace there, the international observers and experts would visit those areas and find out the reality, this is something that Pakistan never wants to.
America and its allies wish to see Pakistan do the things with honesty and integrity that are expected of her, but Pakistan is unable to do that because internally Pakistan is broken into pieces. All its institutions are confrontational against each other. All its strategically important institutions, including railway, PIA and Steal Mill are crawling for artificial breathing under the heavy burden of loans. And above all, its nationalities are frustrated and restive against federation. Meanwhile Baloch are unreservedly demanding outright freedom. Because of its internal turmoil, foreign investment is an unrealizable dream for Pakistan. In international trade market Pakistan has lost its credibility. The war in Balochistan for freedom has plunged Pakistan into an energy deficiency crisis. The resultant of that war, the energy crisis forced the thousands of investors fled to foreign countries. Hindered thousands of People are jobless. As result of that grim economic crisis the parents have started withdrawing their children from schools and admitting them in freeMadrassa where they not only get free admission and free food but also it reliefs the parents from paying fees. Pakistan’s entire job providing factories are closed or getting closed. The jobless people from these factories with their children are consciously or subconsciously falling into pray of extremist Jihadi forces. Among them the matured ones would be mobilized through Propagandists Parties like the Tablighi Jumaiet. Or they will be inducted and activated into extremists Parties like Islamic Defensive Council which are run by Jihadi minded ex- army officers or mullahs. The children of these destitute people will be turn into permanent Mujahid in the name of talib.
Despite of all above mentioned degeneration and deterioration, Pakistani rulers are still engaged in an unprecedented corruption of Rs28 billion per day.
In this short debate we cannot reach to a conclusion by separately debating and analyzing each dimension of this colossal crisis, however, this can be said that to resolve the crisis of this region, America, Russia along with their allies must see that Baloch and Pashtun factors are dealt separately beyond Pakistan’s geographical entity. In comparison Pakistan is more aware of the importance of this reality than America and Russia do. This was the reason that Pakistan established a network of madrassas in Balochistan and now the plan is vigorously being pursued to turn Balochistan terrains into safe havens for Islamic extremists and its seaa hotbed for Dr.ug smugglers and pirates. The objective is that the Baloch are punished for demanding freedom from Pakistan and bogged down into an eternal mess for centuries.
On Afghan front, Pakistan is pursuing a policy of “Exhausting All”, and it certainly would do its level best to make sure that Afghanistan crisis is never resolved and all are depleted and resigned to Pakistan’s hegemony over Afghanistan; thus Afghanistan is Pakistan’s fifth province. Pakistan’s intellectuals are often seen admitting this reality of Pakistan’s sinister design about Afghanistan’s future without any hesitation on TV talk shows.
Pakistan’s policy about this region is obvious and confrontational to civilized world’s aspirations.
Now the question is that if America and Russia have decided to limit themselves only to the contemplation of right direction or take further steps to get the job done? Or continue to repeat their previous mistakes by ignoring the problems of the nationalities in the region and avoid taking a decisive position about Pakistan?
This article was translated by Archen Baloch.
