Afghanistan Times
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KABUL – The dismantling of the US Agency for International Development (USAID) is set to have severe repercussions for millions of vulnerable Afghans who depend on humanitarian aid for survival. Experts warn that the move will not only diminish US soft power but also deepen Afghanistan’s economic collapse, potentially fueling further unrest under Taliban rule.
Since the US withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021 and the Taliban’s return to power, USAID has played a key role in funding emergency relief, healthcare, education, and food security initiatives. The US has been Afghanistan’s largest donor, contributing $3.71 billion (£2.9bn) in humanitarian assistance through the UN and international organisations. With USAID now being phased out, the impact is already being felt—midwifery programs have shut down, secret schools for girls have been suspended, and the American University of Afghanistan has ceased operations.
Afghanistan’s economic situation remains dire. According to the UN, more than half of the country’s estimated 40 million people rely on international aid to survive, while the remainder barely earn enough to meet their basic needs. Since the Taliban takeover, Afghanistan’s economy has shrunk by 27%, with skyrocketing unemployment and inflation exacerbating widespread poverty. Reports indicate that some families have resorted to selling their children to afford food, highlighting the desperate conditions many Afghans face.
The Taliban, which has not been internationally recognised, has benefited financially from the aid flows it permits within the country. UN estimates suggest that up to $40 million (£31m) per week in donor funds has indirectly made its way to the Taliban-controlled central bank. Additionally, the US military withdrawal left behind an estimated $7 billion (£5.5bn) in arms and equipment, further strengthening the Taliban’s grip on power. The Trump administration has argued that halting aid that could benefit the Taliban is necessary to prevent the group from consolidating its rule. Former President Donald Trump has been vocal about stopping any US financial support that inadvertently aids the Taliban and has even suggested retaking the Bagram airbase to counter China’s growing influence in Afghanistan.
However, humanitarian groups caution that an abrupt end to US assistance could push Afghanistan into an even deeper crisis. The devaluation of the Afghani currency, triggered by the aid suspension, has already led to tighter Taliban restrictions on foreign currency outflows. Analysts suggest that if economic conditions deteriorate further, the Taliban’s ability to govern may weaken, strengthening civil and armed opposition movements.
Women and girls remain the most affected by the worsening humanitarian situation. Since taking power, the Taliban has stripped them of fundamental rights, including access to education, employment, and public spaces. A UNDP report states that the mental health crisis among Afghan women has worsened, with increasing reports of suicide due to the oppressive conditions they face.
Observers argue that if the US wants to counter the Taliban effectively, it must find alternative ways to deliver humanitarian assistance without bolstering the group’s rule. Some experts advocate for stricter enforcement of international sanctions alongside creative aid delivery methods that bypass Taliban-controlled systems.
With Afghanistan already teetering on the brink of collapse, the debate over US aid withdrawal raises urgent questions about how the international community can prevent further humanitarian disaster while maintaining pressure on the Taliban regime.
